Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari won a second and final term in office in 2019 courtesy of deep support from the northern part of the country, where he got 77% of the 15m votes he polled.
With preparations in full gear for the next presidential election in February 2023, the big question is; who will win the battle of buying Buhari and the cabals over to himself? Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, Prof. Yomi Osinbajo, Yahaya Bello e.t.c are all rumoured to be making a case.
The voting pattern in Nigeria’s recent elections points to the north as a major decider of how the outcome usually pans. Apart from having the higher number of voters (44.8m compared to the south’s 39.1m), northern Nigeria also has a more active voting population, according to data obtained from the Independent National Electoral Commission.
The party’s national leader, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has been touted by many as the anointed one chosen to replace Buhari. Tinubu, one of the founding fathers of the APC, is touted as the favourite to clinch the party’s presidential ticket because of the work he did that ensured that Buhari won the 2015 election against the then incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan. Tinubu played an influential role in Buhari’s reelection in 2019, as such he’s seen to be likely favoured at the tail end.
The cabals rumoured to be big deciders in the Buhari’s administration are mostly from the Northern States where they boast the most active voting population. The cabals alleged to be running the system with President Buhari as the handwritings on the wall suggested and most times the president gives in to their biddings and commands.
Rumours are rife that the APC cabal loyal to President Muhammadu Buhari is indeed keen to bring former President Jonathan into the party for a number of reasons, partly perhaps to have him replace the incumbent president as a result of his loyalty even after abdicating power.
In another quarter, there are rumours that Vice President Osinbajo may declare his interest to run in 2023. His silence over these claims are anchored on his loyalty to Tinubu and the APC.
It is alleged that Osinbajo may run if APC National Leader, Bola Tinubu decides against pushing through his presidential ambition because of health issues or if calculatively the north decides against enthroning him for the job.
Automatically Asiwaju would do everything possible to have Osinbajo up the ladder the same way he pushed him into the presidency in 2015 as independent sources claims that VP Osinbajo is a very sellable candidate owing to his transparency, integrity and much loyalty to the ruling party.
As for Governor Yahaya Adoza Bello who also has a good relationship with the president, the chances of getting the nod of the president and the cabals is on the slim, reason being the Southern Governors insistence on fielding the presidential candidates of the both party from South.
Amongst the above mentioned, one might likely clinch the ticket but there’s no surety about that until 2022 when big decisions shall be made.